Reference

Michel Le Breton, Dominique Lepelley, and Hatem Smaoui, “The Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote: From IC to IAC trhough Ehrhart's Polynomials and Strong Mixing”, IDEI Working Paper, n. 722, June 2012.

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability of casting a decisive vote for a class or random electorate models encompassing the celebrated IC and IAC models. The emphasis is on the impact of correlation across votes on the order of magnitude of this event. Our proof techniques use arguments from probability theory on one hand and the geometry of convex polytopes on the other hand.

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