Explaining the Evolution of Educational Attainment in the U.S.

Abstract

Can the educational attainment of the 1932-1972 cohorts be explained by the evo- lution of skill prices, tuition, and education expenditures? A model of investment in human capital with heterogeneous learning ability is calibrated to match the ed- ucational attainment of the 1932 and 1972 cohorts. According to the model, college attainment should have grown relatively slowly for the 1932-1948 cohorts and rela- tively quickly for the 1960-1972 cohorts. The data shows the opposite pattern. When extended to allow for cross-cohort variation in average learning ability, calibrated to match the evolution of high school dropout rates, the model explains the attainment data well.

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