Technological transition to electric mobility

Abstract

The context is that of a secular competition between the electrical vehicle (EV) and the gasoline-powered car. In the early years of the automotive industry none of these technologies dominated, but rapidly, the internal combustion engine (IC) has established itself as the dominant technology option. There have been episodes of renewed interest in electric mobility : in the 70’s, due to oil crisis, then in the 90’s mainly motivated by the negative effects of air pollution. These attempts failed to provide electric mobility a sufficient momentum in order to escape the technological lock-in and the late 90’s forecasts about a rapid transition away from IC where pessimistic. Now, times are changing : recent socio-technical developments –mainly led by progress in batteries, concerns about climate change, carbon reduction policies, positive image of electric drive among consumers – have the potential to trigger the emergence of a viable trajectory for electric mobility. Still, there is a need for convenient policies in order to allow these new developments to overcome the factors which work against electric mobility. In this work we question the dynamics of the emergence of electric mobility and the influence of a subsidy policy.