Weather and Infant Mortality in Africa

Abstract

To what extent have weather fluctuations in Africa affected infant mortality over the last fifty years? We investigate this question by combining individual level data, obtained from retrospective fertility surveys (DHS) for nearly a million births in 28 African countries, with data for weather outcomes, obtained from re-analysis with climate models (ERA-40). The focus is on two mechanisms: malaria and malnutrition. We find robust statistical evidence of quantitatively significant effects. Infants born in areas with epidemic malaria that experience worse malarious conditions during the time in utero than the site-specific seasonal means face a higher risk of death, especially when malaria shocks hit low-exposure geographical areas, or hit mothers in the first trimester of pregnancy. Infants born in arid areas who experience droughts when in utero face a higher risk of death, especially if born in the so-called hungry season just after the start of the rains. We also uncover heterogeneities in the infant moratility effects of growing season rainfall and drought shocks, depending on household occupation or education.